21 January 2010

How successful has the Obama Administration been in achieving its economic goals?

The start of a new year is a good time to look back at what happened the past year and assess the degree to which the President’s has been successful in bringing about the changes he said his Administration wanted to make. 
 
Contrary to the Administration’s hopes, the past year has been one of continued disappointments and setbacks that may be broadly described as follows:  Output and employment fell sharply in at the end of 2008 and through much of 2009 in response to a worsening financial crisis that remains unresolved to this day;  The fall in production was particularly steep, with the GDP dropping by 3 per cent in 2009;  A weak, one might even say anemic, recovery may have been underway at the end of the year but this is uncertain;  The number of unemployed across the country rose rapidly throughout 2009 and continues to rise today, with 15.3 million people out of work this past December and with the unemployment rate at stuck at 10 per cent, far above what the Administration predicted;  While inflationary trends are now muted and deflation can be seen in some sectors, inflationary pressures may be building in response to huge government deficits and large injections of liquidity by the Fed at the Administration’s behest;  Deficits in government accounts at all levels are huge and growing, with several states on the verge of bankruptcy and the Federal government projecting its deficit at almost 10 ½ per cent of GDP in 2010, almost as large as the extraordinary 11 per cent last year;  and Banking systems and financial institutions across the country remain in a precarious state, with lending to businesses and consumers much reduced and the balance sheets of many of firms verging on the insolvent.  The economy remains very ill and despite the Administration’s efforts there is no reason to believe it will get well any time soon.
 
It is difficult not to conclude the Administration has made little or no progress across a broad front of economic concerns in 2009.  In fact, the President has fallen far short of his own major goals.  With regard to employment, as pointed out by James Hamilton at Econbrowser, on 9 February the President stated:
 
“I think my initial measure of success is creating or saving 4 million jobs. That's bottom line No. 1, because if people are working, then they've got enough confidence to make purchases, to make investments. Businesses start seeing that consumers are out there with a little more confidence, and they start making investments, which means they start hiring workers. So step No. 1, job creation.”
 
But instead of creating of saving 4 million jobs, over the past year we have lost over 4 million jobs.  More jobs have been lost in the United States under the Obama Administration than under any 12 month period since before World War II.  Nor does there appear to be any relief in sight to our employment problem, as the Administration itself acknowledges.
 
One reason for this failure is the President has not been concerned with the state of the economy and the creation of jobs.  Instead, he has focused on health care and energy and a host of other measures intended, as he puts it, to “transform” the U.S. economy.  While the President may or may not achieve the health care, energy and education reforms he desires, in transforming the U.S. economy he appears to be succeeding.  Unfortunately, it may be the U.S. economy is being transformed from an engine of rapid economic progress into a low employment, low growth economy with little of the prosperity it has enjoyed in the past.

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