31 July 2008

Correlation and causality


“There are many stories about going astray mistaking correlation for causation.

The most common story involves nineteenth-century Russian peasants. Supposedly the peasants noticed that villages with a lot of smallpox also had more doctors' visits than villages without smallpox.

They drew the natural conclusion and started shooting the doctors.”
William Easterly, The Elusive Quest for Growth (MIT Press, 2002), p. 235.

William Easterly is Professor of Economics at New York University, joint with Africa House, and Co-Director of NYU’s Development Research Institute.

A nice reminder that all that seems related, isn't.

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